Mavericks expected to strike fast with controversial signing as free agency begins

Ever since the Dallas Mavericks got the opportunity to select Cooper Flagg, the front office's clear next goal has been to acquire a stopgap guard with Kyrie Irving poised to miss more than half of next season as he recovers from a torn ACL. The Mavericks could be quite the juggernaut next year if the aggregate ball handling and shot creation they can get from Brandon Williams and whatever guard they sign in free agency ends up sufficing until Irving returns, but who Dallas chooses to sign in free agency is crucial for that very reason, as it could very well make or break what seed in the West they'll be once Irving returns.

NBA insider Marc Stein has written multiple times the Mavericks are the favorites to sign D'Angelo Russell with the Taxpayer's MLE, and while this scenario is seeming increasingly likely as the Mavericks are on the brink of free agency opening up at 5 p.m. CST today, it seems like the Mavericks will undoubtedly be signing a guard in the opening minutes of free agency whether it's Russell or not.

"I think they are going to use the [TPMLE] to strike an agreement with someone very early in free agency, shortly after 5 p.m. central," Stein recently said on an episode of the DLLS Mavs Podcast.

Mavericks expected to sign key guard minutes into free agency

While Russell seems like the most viable candidate to agree to a deal with the Mavericks early in free agency, guards like Chris Paul and Malcolm Brogdon could still be on the table as well with the $5.7 million TPMLE, though, it seems like Paul is vying to play closer to home in what could be one of his final seasons in the league per Stein.

Irving being graceful enough to structure his contract in a fashion to where the first-year salary of his new deal would be low enough for the Mavericks to access the TPMLE is a big win for the Mavericks and their front office. However, seeing how bleak the free agent guard market is compared to the trade market is very eye-opening, and it really seems like the Mavericks could've traded for some better options than are available in the free agent pool based on how low the asking price was for guards like Lonzo Ball and Collin Sexton.

The Mavericks possibly could've gotten either of those players without having to sacrifice P.J. Washington or Daniel Gafford, but with many prospective stopgap guards off the table in terms of trade options at this point, it seems extremely likely the Mavericks will sign a guard in free agency instead of trading for one.

If this guard ends up being Russell, then that will be a polarizing prospect in Dallas, as Russell is one of the best secondary shot creators and playmakers in the league when he's hitting on all cylinders, but the 29-year-old guard is easily coming off the worst season of his career and has had defensive shortcomings throughout his career as well. In 58 games with the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets last season, Russell averaged 12.5 points and 5.1 assists per game with shooting splits of 39.0/31.4/83.4.

Russell may have lost a little burst compared to his younger days and he's never quite emerged to be at the level of being able to be a primary shot creator on a winning team, but defenses were able to crowd up on him far more last season with the Nets because of how little offensive talent they had, so hopefully last season was more of a deviation from the mean for Russell and he benefits off playing around more talent if he ends up coming to Dallas.