Mavericks' broken formula is already pushing them toward disaster

Win or go home is the mantra. We’re used to hearing that when the stakes are highest, like in the NBA Playoffs or the NBA Finals. But the Dallas Mavericks need to find their offensive identity right now. That is the key. The stakes couldn’t be any higher. If they don’t figure out how to win games quickly, then Cancun seems to be a more likely destination come season’s end.

The Mavericks have been approaching games with a next-man-up mentality, in hopes of empowering the players and making everyone feel part of the mix. It’s a noble endeavor. But we live in the real world.

The NBA is a league based on star power. It’s the lifeblood of the business. And Dallas is only going to go as far as their delicate big three of Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, and Cooper Flagg will take them. How many games all three of them actually play together is anyone’s best guess.

Mavericks must find a new one-two punch quickly

But what Dallas can control is how they run their base of operations on the basketball floor. Successful businesses thrive because they have repeatable processes and automations that yield consistent results year after year.

It’s why the San Antonio Spurs were so good for so long under Greg Popovich. They had identity. They had a team culture. You knew the Spurs were going to have a team full of international players who were fully adept at utilizing each other’s strengths and playing “Spurs basketball,” which was predicated on minimal dribbling and crisp ball movement reminiscent of the top leagues in Europe. Tim Duncan was low maintenance and the consummate pro. So everyone else had to fall in line.

Kobe Bryant and Shaq O'Neal’s Lakers were an almost unstoppable one-two punch until petty jealousy got in the way of future championships. But they had a blueprint. Establish O'Neal in the paint early and let Bryant be the finisher in the fourth quarter. Plus, they had Robert Horry and Derek Fisher to hit the big shots when needed. And they had Tex Winter’s Triangle Offense to keep everyone in sync.

Golden State had the most recent dynasty, and their modus operandi was a high-octane offense chock-full of screens and hand-offs to free up the Splash Brothers, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. You know they were going to do it. But there was nothing you could do about it.

Rinse and repeat.

If Duncan was load managing to save his knee, the Spurs still played Spurs basketball. If Jordan or Pippen, or O'Neal or Bryant weren’t playing, they still ran the triangle offense. Because these teams had an offensive identity. 

Golden State would move the Golden Gate Bridge itself to make sure Steph Curry gets the ball if that’s what it took. They know who they are.

The Mavericks don’t know who they are without their two stars. What I see is flashes of continuity with a double dose of Hail Mary after Hail Mary. There’s no shame in having some predictability on offense. Who should they run the majority of offensive sets through? Maybe they should run some consistent high screen and roll action with D'Angelo Russell and Daniel Gafford? 

Is Thompson not getting enough minutes or touches to help spread the floor? Or is he just done? That needs to be figured out quickly.

Can Russell be a 20 to 25 point scorer in Irving’s absence? He needs to be. He can’t shoot 2-10 from the field in a close game. There’s no room for error. Can P.J. Washington recreate what he did Monday night against a very good Houston Rockets team with 29 points and 12 rebounds? It’s unlikely. But it shouldn’t be. The opportunity is there for the taking. He has the tools.

This is as much mental as it is physical. It’s what separates the good from the great.

Cooper Flagg will be up and down all season. That is to be expected. Naji Marshall and Max Christie are going to play hard and defend, but they can only do so much. Derek Lively II’s ceiling of development will be something to keep an eye on. Will he develop his offensive game? Or just be the second coming of Tyson Chandler?

When it's prime time, the top guys have to shine brightest. Consistently. Dallas needs to establish their new one-two punch quickly so the supporting cast can do what they do best. If not? Cancun on three!