If Cooper Flagg is the most productive American-born rookie since his teammate Anthony Davis in 2012, then Flagg's first season must have gone as well as fans hope for. To do that though, Flagg must surpass the debut seasons of Zion Williamson, Paolo Banchero, Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
That's easier said than done, as all of those guys were impressive in their first years (Banchero, specifically, averaged 20 points per game). But Flagg is likely to produce a more rounded statistical profile than those guys, which will lift him in the debate for best NBA rookie of the 21st century. His passing and defense are incredibly advanced for a rookie, and those traits (plus the occasional scoring outburst) will allow him to be a positive-impact player in year one, which is rare even among future stars.
Davis was one of the guys who immediately contributed to winning in year one. He entered the league as an elite paint protector; as a rookie, he averaged 1.8 blocks and 1.2 steals per game, showing early on that he wasn't good "for a rookie," he was good as soon as he stepped onto an NBA court. By year two, he was leading the league in blocks.
Flagg's versatility will make him more impactful than other rookies
Cooper Flagg, though in a different role, could have a similar impact on the Mavs; the good for a rookie label will quickly give way to a just good label. His raw stats will be impressive — 17ish points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists per game, and 2-plus stocks per game feels like a reasonable statline — but I think the eye test will be even kinder to him. He's going to jump off TV screens because he'll be involved in almost everything the Mavs do.
Most of the guys on that list were also playing in pretty low-stakes situations; Flagg has the advantage (or disadvantage, depending on who you ask) of playing for a team that believes it can compete for a playoff spot this year, and he's going to be front and center starting on day one.
Thus, Flagg's combination of incredible skills that will allow him to produce immediately, a good, solid NBA roster around him, and the opportunity to be the team's go-to guy, all combine to provide him with a chance to be the best American-born rookie in over a decade. His work is cut out for him in Dallas.
In order to earn the title of best rookie of the 21st century, he'll have to do some pretty historic things that another guy in Texas accomplished a few years back. So let's not hold our breath on that one.