Dallas Mavericks: Odds of moving up in the NBA Draft lottery

The Dallas Mavericks need to move into the top four in the 2019 NBA Draft lottery to retain their first-round pick. Here is a look at the odds.

Dallas Mavericks fans are hoping for some magic on May 14. The NBA Draft lottery takes place that night, and the Mavs need some help to keep their first-round pick. Dallas finished tied for the seventh worst record this season. Their pick is top-five protected after the trade with the Atlanta Hawks to move up and get Luka Doncic.

What are the odds that the Mavericks get to make their pick on draft night? Here is a breakdown.

Odds at each pick

First overall: 6.0 percent

Second overall: 6.3 percent

Third overall: 6.7 percent

Fourth overall: 7.2 percent

Fifth overall: Impossible

The NBA is only selecting the first four teams in the lottery. That means the Mavs cannot pick fifth. They can only select first through fourth or ninth to 13th.

Based on the odds, the Mavericks have a 26.3 percent chance of keeping their first-round pick. They have 46.4 percent chance at landing ninth overall which is the highest of any individual selection.

Here is a look at how the Dallas Mavericks have fared in recent lotteries.

Mavs lottery history

The Mavericks lottery luck has not been strong. They have only been in the lottery four times since 2000. In 2018, they entered with the third-worst record but fell back to fifth overall. The other three times, the lottery did not change their pick. They held at ninth in 2017, 13th in 2013, and 12th in 2000.

The Mavs are due to get fortunate in the NBA Draft lottery. They are sending CEO Cynthia Marshall as their representative this year. Hopefully, she is the lucky charm the Mavericks need to vault into the top four.

Final thoughts

The Dallas Mavericks have just over a one out of four chance of moving up in the 2019 NBA Draft lottery and keeping their first-round pick. The organization will need some luck for it to happen. Teams with longer odds have secured the first overall pick, so anything can happen.

The Smoking Cuban will be back with plenty more on the lottery including the results and who the Mavs should pick if they retain their selection, so keep it locked right here.