NBA Draft Roundtable: Who Will be the Bust of the Lottery?

There is good and there is bad. For every surprise like Donovan Mitchell and Klay Thompson, there is a dud like Hasheem Thabeet or Anthony Bennett. Even though all of these players made their case from college, not all of them carry that on. Who will be this year’s potential lottery bust?

We have all seen it and every time you hear the word bust, a name comes to mind. Sometimes that name is someone who you thought could never fail (Adam Morrison or Greg Oden). Other times it is someone you haven’t even heard of (Andrea Bargnani or Darko Milicic). And other times, you kind of just know that they could easily bust (Anthony Bennett or Jimmer Fredette).

It is always sad to see players fail, but it happens frequently enough to where we are used to seeing it. These are talented basketball players, but all of the most talented basketball players in the world play in this league so, it is not surprising when the occasional one doesn’t get it done the way he is supposed to.

The Dallas Mavericks definitely want to avoid high bust prospects in this draft, but that does not mean that they will figure out a way to steer clear of them anyways. Players are unpredictable.

So who will be this year’s draft bust? The staff makes their picks.

Michael Porter Jr.

“I felt conflicted about picking MPJ here, especially after placing him second on my mock draft. However, his injury history remains concerning and recent reports of poor interviews with teams have dampened my enthusiasm. Furthermore, he hasn’t shown enough on the defensive end of the floor, which makes for a low floor (bust potential) should his offensive game fail to translate or his injuries catch up to him.” –Paul Wang

Marvin Bagley III

“Marvin Bagley is the type of player that may struggle in the NBA. Slightly undersized for his position, Bagley is a solid all around player but doesn’t stand out in any one category. While rebuilding teams would love to have him, he will have to develop a go to move on offense or a more consistent defensive repertoire to polish his game.” –Evan Siegel

Trae Young

“This one was tough for me because I really like the lottery guys this year. I opted for Young not because I think he will be a bad player, but because I think he may go a little too high. Young could hear his name called in the top 5 or 6 but I’d feel a lot more comfortable drafting some guys who may go after Young such as Mikal Bridges, Wendell Carter Jr., Michael Porter Jr., and Collin Sexton.” –Sean Bush

Michael Porter Jr.

“If Michael Porter Jr. doesn’t successfully recover from his surgery or continues having issues with his back throughout his career, he could end up being a bust. In addition to his injury history, Porter Jr. is a hard player to scout due to his limited time against college competition. Porter isn’t even 20 years old yet, but his upside could already be limited if this back issue lingers, making him a potential bust.” –Zach Windell

Jaren Jackson Jr.

“My opinion on Jaren Jackson Jr. is pretty simple — a lot of hype, just not my type. The idea of Jackson Jr. being a top-5 talent just seems forced, and I, for one, don’t see the potential everyone else apparently does. Being a big man that can hit threes is not the end all be all for me.” –Emmanuel Dixon

Trae Young

“Trae Young is going to get drafted way too high. It’s not his fault. If the indications are you’re going to get drafted in the lottery, you should declare. But Young could definitely use some more time in college. He needs to get stronger and learn to play within a system. If a team drafts him and expects him to be the next Steph Curry, they’re going to be very wrong.” –Ben Zajdel

Michael Porter Jr.

“A lower back injury at just 19 is extremely worrisome. With only fifty-three minutes logged during his lone season at Missouri, Michael Porter Jr. looked far from what many projected as one of the top prospects in college basketball. His medical reports will most certainly dictate where he ends up on June 21st. Casey Smith and the Mavs medical staff will have a lot on their plates with Michael Porter Jr. There is no doubt that MPJ has the most ‘boom or bust’ potential out of any of the lottery prospects in this year’s draft.” –Robby Lewis

Jaren Jackson Jr.

“My pick for lottery bust from the beginning was always Trae Young, but when the hype train that is the Jaren Jackson believers came steaming through, I did my reviews on the youngster from Michigan State. I’m not sold on him and think that he has a lot to prove before he would ever be worthy of a top 5 pick or being drafted in front of Ayton, Doncic, Bagley, or Bamba. I could be very wrong, but he just doesn’t check all the boxes for me, and I think he will need a specific system in order to thrive.” –Kohl Rast

Next: Can the Mavs Help LeBron James with the Sting of Game 1?

We could all be right on this or we could all be very wrong. The fact is, there is no way to really tell if a player is going to be a bust or not. Give it a couple years and some of us will be ready to apologize for our mistakes while others may be saying “I told you so.”