Should the Dallas Mavericks Re-sign Nerlens Noel?

 Lost in the shuffle of all the recent draft talk is a looming decision for the Mavericks–should they re-sign Nerlens Noel? The 24-year-old was brought to Dallas to be the rim protector they’ve needed since Tyson Chandler left. But the results have been mixed so far.

There’s more to this than just looking at Noel’s stats and deciding whether it makes sense to keep him in Dallas for the next few years. Your answer to this question says a lot about what you think about the direction of the Mavericks (and possibly the NBA) for the next decade.

Whether the Mavericks re-sign Noel will give us some insight into the minds of Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson. Here are three reasons the Mavericks may not bring back the former Kentucky big man:

Noel wasn’t the player the Mavericks traded for.

When the Mavericks traded for Noel, there was a sense he was being underutilized in Philadelphia. The Sixers had Joel Embiid, so it would be hard for Noel to find significant minutes on their roster. The Mavericks needed a young, rim-running center to fit into Rick Carlisle’s offense, so the deal made sense.

Noel averaged almost two blocks per game his rookie season, then followed that up with 11.5 points and 8 rebounds per game his second year. He was mobile on defense, and there was reason to believe he would get better as he gained strength. He didn’t rebound as well as in previous years once he made it to Dallas, but his points and blocks per game remained somewhat consistent.

Unfortunately, Noel struggled to find a spot in Carlisle’s rotation and posted the worst per game averages of his short career. He also broke his thumb, got suspended, and played the fewest games (30) of his career. Add in his whole contract situation and the odd hot dog incident, and well, it ended up being a pretty bad year for Nerlens. At this point, it might be better for both the Mavericks and Noel to part ways and get a fresh start.

The Mavericks have already decided they want one of the centers in the draft.

Whether it’s Mo Bamba or Jaren Jackson Jr., it’s possible the Mavericks are in love with one of the big men in this draft. In that case, it wouldn’t matter what stats Noel put up during his time in Dallas. Maybe Dallas thinks Bamba will become an elite version of whatever they envisioned Noel being when they traded for him. Maybe they want to go in a different direction and get possible Al Horford clone Wendell Carter Jr.

It wouldn’t make sense to have Bamba and Noel on the roster. The Mavericks would be in the same situation as Philly a couple of years ago–two talented centers and only enough minutes for one. If Dallas believes there’s an elite center available when they pick that will propel this team toward contention, then it’s possible they’ll choose that person over Noel.

Maybe the Mavericks don’t value traditional centers now.

In 2001, the NBA eliminated all illegal defense rules and replaced them with the 3-second violation. It took ten years for coaches to adapt, but over time, isolation plays became more difficult to execute.

Before Tom Thibodeau excelled at grinding his star players’ joints to dust, he revolutionized NBA defenses during his time as an assistant with the Celtics by overloading the ball side of the floor. Pretty soon every NBA team followed suit. Star players going one-on-one became less effective because defenses could create a wall of defenders to stifle any isolation play.

When people talk about isolations, what often comes to mind is Michael Jordan or Allen Iverson breaking down a defender one-on-one. But post-ups are isolation plays, too. And post-ups on the block just aren’t as effective as they used to be. There are too many defenders in the post. With NBA players more athletic than ever, it’s almost impossible to pass out of those double (and sometimes triple) teams without the defense getting back into position.

My point in all of this is that it’s possible the traditional center is gone. And while Noel doesn’t have the traditional back-to-the-basket game, he doesn’t spread the floor, either. Maybe this pace-and-space era of the NBA is temporary and will pass after this Warriors dynasty is disassembled. But it’s likely that because of rule changes, this style of play is here to stay and centers like Noel won’t have a place in the new NBA. The Mavericks might have decided that they want to play small ball, too.

So should the Mavericks Re-Sign Nerlens Noel?

All of the reasons listed above might matter. Maybe Noel just isn’t as good as the Mavericks thought when they traded for him. It’s possible Dallas has fallen in love with Mo Bamba and they don’t need Noel anymore. Or maybe Cuban and company have converted to the Church of Small Ball and no longer believe in tall, non-shooting centers. Maybe Rick Carlisle can’t stand the guy. I don’t know.

But here’s the thing: if the Mavericks believe Noel has even a chance at being an all-star or even a strong rotation player, they need to re-sign him. The dearth of talent on the Mavericks’ roster last season was staggering. Noel is only 24 years old and is a former sixth overall pick. It’s very possible he has untapped talent waiting to emerge.

Not many teams have cap space this off-season, so it’s likely Dallas can bring Noel back on a cheap deal. That’s what makes it worth the risk. Even if a player like Bamba or Jackson is available when the Mavericks pick, they can always trade Noel later. If he and Carlisle aren’t getting along, they need to find a way to make it work.

Next: Changing Fate for the Dallas Mavericks Post NBA Lottery

The Mavericks have stitched together teams filled with aging veterans and undrafted rookies for too long. It’s time to construct a roster of young, talented players with the potential to become stars. Noel fits that mold perfectly.