How Dennis Smith Jr. Can Find Success With An Average 3-point Shot

Dennis Smith Jr. may not be an elite three-point shooter at any point in his NBA career. Don’t let that concern you though, his other skills will make up the difference.

With three quarters of the season in the books, there’s enough of a sample size to evaluate Dennis Smith Jr.’s 3-point shot. So far, it’s not great. He’s only shooting .307 from behind the arc, which isn’t awful, but is far from a threat that will draw defenses out to the perimeter.

But will an average 3-point percentage stunt Smith’s development into an elite NBA point guard? I took a look at the rookie seasons of a couple of All Star point guards to find out how they overcame poor shooting in their first year in the NBA.

Tony Parker shot .323 from behind the arc his rookie season with the Spurs. A respectable number, sure, but not enough to stretch a defense. So how did Parker lead San Antonio to a championship the next year and go on to appear in six All Star games?

Parker shot .570 within three feet of the basket his rookie year with the Spurs. Almost 37 percent of his shots came from close by the basket that year. By the time of his All Star appearance in the 2005-06 season, almost 47 percent of his shots were coming within three feet of the basket. His percentage on those shots was .705. Parker was getting to the basket a lot, and finishing when he got there.

Russell Westbrook is someone Smith gets compared to all the time. Westbrook shot .271 from 3 his rookie season (and followed it up with a dreadful .221 his second year). But he was All Star by his third season and is now the reigning MVP of the league, despite boasting a career 3-point shooting percentage of .310.

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK – DECEMBER 31: Dennis Smith Jr. #1 of the Dallas Mavericks handles the ball during the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on December 31, 2017 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images) /

A quick glance at his numbers from that rookie season shows a high number of free throw attempts. Westbrook was second on the Thunder in free throw attempts in 2008-09, trailing only Kevin Durant. He attempted 5.2 and 5.1 free throws per game his first two seasons, respectively, before jumping to 7.7 per game in 2010-11, the year of his first All Star appearance.

Last season, Westbrook went to the line 10.4 times per game. He’s made up for his average 3-point shot by attacking the basket relentlessly, drawing fouls at rate only surpassed by James Harden. It doesn’t matter if Westbrook’s 3-point shot isn’t falling. He can quickly muscle his way to the hoop and draw a foul whenever he wants.

Parker and Westbrook developed an elite skill that made up for their lack of a consistent 3-point shot. For Dennis Smith to have the type of success these two point guards have had, he’ll have to do the same.

Smith is currently only shooting .434 within three feet of the basket, and averaging a respectable three free throws per game. He’ll need to work on finishing with his left hand and learn how to draw fouls in the paint to improve those numbers. He could also develop an elite mid-range jump shot, though he’ll draw a lot of hate from the more analytics-minded NBA fans.

Next: ESPN Ranks Top 25 Under 25; Dennis Smith Jr. Not Mentioned

There is a path for Dennis Smith Jr. to become an elite player at his position without an elite 3-point shot, but it will require the development of another special offensive skill. Fortunately, the Mavericks have turned this lost season over to him, giving him the opportunity to find out what that skill may be.

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