Dallas Mavericks: Vegas odds have Mavs finishing the season at .500

The Las Vegas odds for projected win totals for the NBA Western Conference have been released and the Dallas Mavericks are sitting in the 9th spot overall with a 41.5 win projection. This feels low to me.

Last year, the Dallas Mavericks won a total of 33 games throughout the season, a majority of them coming in the first half of the year. Prior to the trade that would send the Mavs into immediate tank mode for the remainder of the year, they were 23-27. The team went on to win 10 of the final 22 games.

The team that finished the year last year is not the team that will be taking the court this coming season. Dallas added Kristaps Porzingis, a one-time 22-year-old NBA All-Star, to their roster and, although he had some health concerns, he is still one of the most uniquely gifted players in the NBA.

This addition means that Dallas has two potential stars on the roster under the age of 24. One of these stars is the most decorated European player in history and is the reigning Rookie of the Year and potentially the best rookie the NBA has seen in a decade. He is a playmaker and distributor that has a 7’3″ sharpshooter next to him. Things are looking awfully good in the star department.

I understand that the supporting cast is not where people want it to be. There is no clear cut third option at this point and the Mavs are missing a good glue guy for the starting lineup. Players like Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Seth Curry will play important roles, but it is no secret that someone will have to step up. Still, there are worse situations to be in.

In the past, it was not uncommon for the West to have 10 teams competing for the 8 playoff spots deep into the season. In fact, in 7 of the past 10 seasons, the 9-seed in the West was above .500, including the crazy 2013-14 season when the Phoenix Suns missed the playoffs despite a 48-34 record.

There’s no guarantee that this will happen again this year, but the Western Conference is perhaps stronger than it has ever been before. The Mavs would be considered a near lock for the playoffs in the East and yet they are on the outside looking in right now for the West.

I believe that the first team that misses the West playoffs will be sitting in the 45-win range. It  feels like one of those years where the race for the final spot won’t be determined until the final week of the season and I think the Mavs will be in that conversation.

If I were placing a bet on the Mavs record, I would be much more inclined to bet over the 41.5 win projection than under. Dallas is going to be a super fun team this year, and as long as KP stays healthy (which is what I base my decision on), the Mavs are going to be a dangerous team.