5 Reasons the Mavericks will crush the Clippers in first round of playoffs

Mavericks fans are buzzing with excitement, as the Dallas Mavericks are only days away from their first-round matchup versus the LA Clippers.

The Mavericks are obviously no strangers to the Clippers, as this will be the third time the two teams have played against one another in the first round within the last five seasons.

The Mavericks are hard at work preparing for this matchup, as it would be a total letdown if the Mavericks lost against the Clippers once again, especially with how well Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and company were playing to close the regular season.

5 Reasons the Mavericks will crush the Clippers in first round of playoffs

However, there are a lot of variables in play that are working in the Mavericks' favor heading into this series, as the Mavericks have as good of a chance as they ever have to make a deep playoff run and take care of the Clippers in round one.

With that being said, here are five reasons the Mavericks will crush the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs.

5. Mavericks' newfound size and rim presence

The Mavericks came into this season with a lot of uncertainty in regard to how strongly their big-man rotation could hold up against the rest of the league, but the emergence of rookie Dereck Lively II as well as a midseason trade that brought in Daniel Gafford has given the Mavericks the ability to stagger 48 minutes worth of rim rollers.

Due to a knee injury as well as the passing of his mother, Lively II hasn't even played since March 31 against the Houston Rockets, yet the Mavericks interior defense has remained one of the best in the league throughout this recent stretch still. This is why Dallas went out and traded for Gafford, as Lively II's knee sprain would've forced the Mavericks to overextend Maxi Kleber or Dwight Powell had it happened before the trade deadline.

With Lively II projecting to be back for the first game of the Mavs-Clippers series, Dallas will have their full complement of bigs heading into this matchup. The Mavericks didn't have two dynamic rim rollers and rim protectors like they do now with Lively II and Gafford when they last played the Clippers in the first round, and Dallas' only other talented defensive center in Kleber was often asked to guard one of Paul George or Kawhi Leonard due to the Mavericks' lack of depth at the time.

Kleber is hitting his stride at the perfect time of the season, as he's rekindled his stout interior defense as well as the ability to switch onto the perimeter. Kleber's offensive game is even starting to come along, which gives Dallas the ability to play ultra-big and put Kleber at the four if they want to.

Ivica Zubac has notoriously gotten played off the court when the Mavericks have played the Clippers because of his inability to switch onto the perimeter in pick-and-roll scenarios, but even if Zubac stands his ground, the likes of Gafford and Lively II have solid size against Zubac defensively and are far more athletic than him.

With everyone for Dallas projecting to be healthy heading into this series, they have the clear advantage in rim protection, rebounding, and athleticism from the center position versus the Clippers unless Dallas' bigs struggle to guard on the perimeter.

4. Mavericks have the better duo of the two teams

Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic have reached another level of consistency as the Mavericks approach the playoffs. Irving played in 31 consecutive games to close the regular season before the Mavericks decided to rest him in their final two contests, and Doncic hasn't missed a significant stretch of games all season. Irving and Doncic have proved doubters wrong in regard to the pairing's fit in Dallas, and they've subsequently spearheaded one of the best teams in the NBA this season.

The Clippers' duo of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have had their most consistent season in a few years, but they haven't played anywhere near to the caliber of Irving and Doncic this season. Doncic is playing at an MVP-level with absurd averages of 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds per game on 48.7/38.2/78.6 shooting splits. Even if Doncic doesn't win MVP, it can't be denied that he's the best player heading into this series.

With Irving playing at an All-Star level and having just come off a regular season where he had almost 50/40/90 shooting efficiency, it's clear that most people would take Irving and Doncic's regular season over George and Leonard's regular season, especially when you take into consideration that the Clippers offense hasn't looked as polished as they did during the beginning of the season.

The Mavericks can't undermine Leonard and George's dynamism on both sides of the ball when they face off, but having two of the three best players on the court at all times is certainly a huge win for the Mavericks. Irving and Doncic can bring a different level of poise to the Mavericks' lineup that the Clippers may not be able reciprocate with Leonard's game-one status still uncertain, but even if Leonard's healthy, Dallas still likely has the better duo and late-game shot-making of the two teams which will be huge in clutch scenarios.

3. Third time’s a charm

Both teams have a ton at stake in this third Mavericks-Clippers first round matchup, but it seems like the stars are finally aligning for the Mavericks to finally win a series versus the Clippers. In the previous two matchups versus the Clippers in 2020 and 2021, the Mavericks were still trying to build a competitive roster around Luka Doncic, as the Mavericks were taken aback at how fast Doncic reached superstar status after his rookie season.

Kristaps Porzingis was Dallas' second best player at the time, and whilst we saw flashes of Doncic and Porzingis' dynamism together during the first few games of the 2020 series before Porzingis got hurt, Doncic was often the only true shot-creator on the floor when Dallas played against the Clippers in each of those series and Porzingis was a no-show in 2021. While many will point to Jalen Brunson as someone who provided "help" for Doncic in those series, Brunson missed the entire 2020 playoffs with a labrum tear and was on the fringes of the rotation when Dallas played the Clippers in 2021.

The Mavericks have a far more dynamic attack now, as Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic have been playing some of the best basketball of their careers together recently. The Mavericks also have much more dynamic wings and bigs on both sides of the ball than they did when they faced the Clippers previously, making this the perfect storm of events for Dallas to beat the Clippers in the third series of this trilogy.

While the Mavericks' roster, coaching staff, and front office have drastically changed since the first two series against LA, Luka Doncic certainly didn't forget the pain of not being able to get over the hump against the Clippers twice.

2. Mavericks are getting healthy at the right time

The biggest question mark heading into this series is the availability of Kawhi Leonard for the LA Clippers. Leonard has been dealing with right knee inflammation that's kept him out since March 31, ironically the last time that Mavericks' rookie Dereck Lively II played in a game as well. However, Dallas seems to be much more certain with Lively II's availability ahead of game one compared to how certain the Clippers are in regards to Leonard returning by then.

Lively II was a full participant in practice during Dallas' last practice, whilst Leonard still hasn't been cleared for 5-on-5 activity according to Clippers' head coach Tyronn Lue. All signs are pointing toward the Mavericks having a fully healthy roster for the first round of the playoffs, while the Clippers may see their best player miss one or more games.

Even if Leonard makes a return, there's always the possibility that he could re-aggravate his knee in this series, as Leonard's one mark of inconsistency in his career has been his durability, especially come playoff time. For fans and everyone involved in this series, it would be a travesty to see Leonard miss significant time, as we'd all like everyone to be healthy as well as the most competitive series possible.

However, if Leonard's health isn't meeting the idealistic standard, then the Mavericks could have a far easier series than originally anticipated. Without Leonard the Clippers likely don't have enough shot-creation or defense to beat the Mavericks, as Leonard's versatility on both ends will be paramount for the Clippers if they want to beat the red-hot Mavericks in a seven-game series.

The same argument could be made that Lively II may re-aggravate his knee in this series, but Dallas has proven that they can survive stretches with just one of Gafford or Lively II available if need be. The Clippers would undoubtedly test that thesis in a playoff series, but it goes without saying that Leonard is more vital to the Clippers success than Lively II is for the Mavericks success, which isn't a knock on Lively II whatsoever. If Leonard misses any time, then Dallas has to take advantage of his absence, as we've seen Leonard's ability to swing a series beforehand as Mavericks fans.

1. Clippers have more holes in their rotation than Mavericks

While almost no NBA team has zero weaknesses, the Mavericks have done a great job of addressing nearly all of their weakness throughout the course of the regular season. After bringing in Washington and Gafford at the trade deadline, the Mavericks have the personnel to matchup defensively against nearly any team in the league, something that seemed impossible for the Mavericks given their average defense to start the season.

Dallas still has some subtle holes in their roster such as their 3-point shooting inconsistency at times from their wings and bench, but overall Dallas’ defense has given them a new gritty identity as a team. However, the playoffs are all about attacking even the most marginal disadvantages that another team may have, so the Mavericks will be tested to the fullest by the Clippers.

Even so though, the Clippers have a few more holes in their lineup at face value than the Mavericks do. For instance, with the way Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have played defense to close the season, it can be argued the Mavericks don’t have any “minus” defenders in their starting lineup. The Clippers on the other hand may have two lackluster defenders in their starting lineup as far as this matchup is concerned, as James Harden has historically been a negative defender and Ivica Zubac has gotten played off the floor every time the Mavericks have played the Clippers in the playoffs.

The Clippers also may have trouble creating offense at times, especially if Kawhi Leonard misses multiple games, as Harden was extremely inefficient as a scorer to close the regular season. Norman Powell or Russell Westbrook could give Dallas some trouble off the bench in a game or two in that regard, but the Mavericks will likely have good enough point-of-attack defense to make that a non-issue.

It will be interesting to see all the game-to-game adjustments that the Clippers and Mavericks make in this series to try and yield an advantage, but the Mavericks clearly have a better roster on paper, especially with Leonard’s health up in the air.

For more on the Dallas Mavericks ahead of the playoffs, stay tuned as we will have you covered.