Should the Dallas Mavericks tank and try to keep their 1st round draft pick?

The Dallas Mavericks thought they would owe their 2023 first-round draft pick to the New York Knicks as completion of the original Kristaps Porzingis trade. It has a top ten protection on it, but Dallas believed there was zero chance they would be in the lottery with Luka Doncic leading their charge. He was leading the league in scoring for much of the season and putting up historic numbers, but the wins have not followed.

After a soul-crushing loss to the undermanned and lottery-bound Charlotte Hornets, the Mavs are 36-38 with eight games remaining in the regular season. They sit 11th in the Western Conference and outside the Play-In Tournament on the morning of March 25. Dallas has the 11th-worst record in the NBA, and they would be in the lottery if the season ended today.

Should the Mavs tank their remaining games and try to keep their first-round pick? Here are the pros and cons of each before diving into what Dallas should do.

Pros of the Dallas Mavericks tanking to keep their 1st round pick

The Mavs must add talent to their roster this offseason. A significant piece of their struggles is a lack of skill and size, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Dallas is undersized and lacks any semblance of rim protection. It often looks like the All-Star game when the Mavericks are playing as the opposition freely gets to the rim for easy buckets.

Beyond that, the Mavericks need wing help. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving pair to make a dynamic offensive backcourt, but both are subpar defenders that are prone to defensive lapses. Dallas desperately needs a perimeter stopper that can guard at the point of attack.

General manager Nico Harrison has been in charge of two drafts, but he has just one draft choice in his ledger. Last year, the Mavericks traded their 26th overall pick in the first round for Christian Wood but jumped back into the second round to snag Jaden Hardy. The 20-year-old rookie has already outperformed his draft position and is looking like one of the steals of the 2022 draft. Having a top-ten pick could be just what Dallas needs to make a significant improvement next season.

The chances of the Mavs going from the Play-In Tournament to making a deep playoff run is unlikely at best. No team has ever won a playoff series after advancing through the Play-In. This will only be the fourth season of the tournament, but it still seems unlikely.

It is not all positive for tanking, though. The Dallas Mavericks should strongly consider the long-term impacts of a move like that.

Cons of Dallas Mavericks tanking to keep their 1st round pick

Adding a top-ten selection to pair with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving sounds enticing, but what if the pick heads to New York anyways? Or worse what if it costs the Mavs one or both of their superstars?

Dallas currently has the 11th-worst record in the NBA, so they would have to move up into the top four to keep their pick. The current odds, according to Tankathon, put that at a 7.2 percent chance of happening. The standings are jumbled in the race of the Play-In Tournament and the race to the bottom. Still, Dallas is three full games back of the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards with eight to go. That is a massive gap to close.

At best, the Mavericks could finish with the ninth-worst record, which gives them a 96.3 percent chance of keeping their pick. It drops to 80.3 percent if they finish with the tenth-worst. The odds would be strong, but it is never a lock and others will be looking to lose their games down the stretch too.

Luka’s frustration was evident after the Mavs lost to the Hornets on March 24. Does Dallas want to tank and push their 24-year-old superstar closer to the edge? He is clearly not happy right now, and Dallas needs to do everything possible to keep him. Having a top-ten pick means nothing if Doncic is not on the roster to lead it.

The Mavs gave up three draft picks and two starters to acquire Kyrie Irving at the trade deadline. They are pot committed to keeping him, but he becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer. If Dallas misses the postseason entirely, Irving is likely to walk. That would leave the Mavericks again searching for a second star with virtually zero avenues to acquiring one.

What should the Dallas Mavericks do over their final eight games?

Should the Dallas Mavericks tank to keep their 1st round pick?

The Dallas Mavericks need to win and now. They are currently tied for tenth in the Western Conference, but just one game back of seventh. They are 2.5 behind fifth, but passing all those teams over eight games is difficult. If Dallas can get into the seven versus eight game in the Play-In Tournament, they should make the playoffs. The Mavs have two of the best players in the world and will have a puncher’s chance at a first-round upset.

Tanking does not solve any of the team’s problems. Yes, they could add a top-ten pick to their roster, but he would likely need multiple years to develop. The pressure is on the Mavericks to win now. They cannot wait or Luka Doncic will be wearing a different uniform.

Dallas needs to make the 24-year-old’s partnership with Kyrie Irving work immediately. The superstar duo needs to work out the kinks on offense and play with max effort on the defensive end. That is the first key to breaking out of their slump. The Mavericks should also be in the market for a leader that can quarterback the defense next season.

Will the Dallas Mavericks qualify for the playoffs or end up in the lottery this year? It is something to watch closely down the stretch. Every game matters, including ones not even involving Dallas, so tune in and enjoy the drama.