Examining the 2023 doomsday scenario for the Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have won just one of their last six games, and three of 11 to slip to 11th in the Western Conference with five games remaining in the regular season. Nobody expected the Mavs to be here. Not after last year’s run to the conference finals, and certainly not after the blockbuster trade that brought Kyrie Irving to Dallas. The Mavericks may not even make the Play-In Tournament.

Things are bad in Dallas, but they could still get worse. The Mavs have two future Hall of Famers on their roster, and they must build around them if they want to get back into contention. Dallas has to upgrade their defense, rebounding, rim protection, and depth to make a leap this summer.

How much worse could things get for the Mavericks? Here is a look at how their doomsday scenario could unfold and force the team into total and complete chaos before the end of 2023.

Dallas Mavericks miss the Play-In Tournament and finish with 10th worst record in the NBA

The Mavs missing the entire postseason one year after making the conference finals is disastrous. It shows Jalen Brunson's importance, and further underscores the front office’s mistakes last summer. From letting Brunson walk without replacing him to signing JaVale McGee to be the starting center, nothing worked and now Dallas is paying for it.

Missing the postseason is bad, but it could get worse. The Mavericks owe the Knicks their 2023 first-round pick from the original Kristaps Porzingis trade, but it has a top-ten protection on it. Dallas finishing with the tenth-worst record in the NBA gives them an 11.6 percent chance of jumping into the top four and a 77.5 percent chance of keeping their pick. Retaining their selection is no guarantee, and that is where things start racing downhill.

Dallas Mavericks slide back in NBA Draft lottery to 11th and owe pick to Knicks

If the Mavs miss the playoffs, lottery night will be massive for the franchise. Dallas needs talent, and this is a loaded class with elite players at the top. Fans will dream of jumping up into the top four to get a game-changer next to Luka Doncic. Could the Mavericks leap to number one and get Victor Wembanyama? It will be possible.

In the worst-case scenario, their 77.5 percent chance of keeping their pick turns to zero as one of the team’s below them leaps into the top four and leaves the Mavericks empty-handed. They convey the 11th pick to the Knicks to complete the Kristaps Porzingis trade, and Dallas sits without a draft pick in 2023.

This hurts because the Mavs have limited avenues to acquire talent. If this pick heads to New York, Dallas will have two first-round picks to trade, but they will only have one if they keep the selection. Technically, the Mavericks could still trade two because they could move their 2023 first-rounder on draft night.

If Dallas re-signs Kyrie Irving, cap space will be eliminated. They will have the taxpayer mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception to add free agents. The Mavericks could dangle Josh Green or Jaden Hardy to sweeten a trade, but they need depth too.

It would be a gut punch to slip from 10th to 11th on lottery night, but things could get significantly worse for the Mavericks from there.

Kyrie Irving leaves Dallas Mavericks in free agency to team with cap space

Mavs fans know exactly what it is like to lose your second-best player with zero return. Jalen Brunson departed for New York last summer in free agency, and Dallas got nothing back. It is one of the many reasons that the Mavericks are in their current position.

Kyrie is an unrestricted free agent this summer, and the risk of him leaving is real. Rumors of him going to Los Angeles to team with LeBron James will persist until the eight-time All-Star makes his decision, but it is not just the Lakers. Irving could sign anywhere.

If Kyrie can find a team with cap space willing to give him a max contract, he might take it. Losing him for nothing would hurt worse than Brunson considering what the Mavericks just gave up to acquire him. Dallas traded their best defender, a starting guard, one first-round pick, and two second-round picks to acquire Irving in February. That is a hefty price to pay for a two-month rental that could bolt in free agency.

The Dallas Mavericks made a desperation trade for a second star, and it will be a massive talent drain on their roster if he leaves in free agency. Sadly, things could still get worse.

Dallas Mavericks get desperate and overpay for a role player

If Kyrie Irving bolts in free agency, the Mavs will have about $20 million in cap space to spend. They would have their full mid-level exception and a bi-annual exception to use as well. It would make Dallas players for mid-tier free agents. The best options are making more than $20 million per season, and that could create another problem for Dallas.

The worst thing they could do with their cap space is overpay for a middling free agent. At some point, if the Mavericks cannot convince anyone to join Luka Doncic in Dallas, they will have to use the money, but overpaying is always a mistake.

Look at the contracts of Tim Hardaway Jr., JaVale McGee, and Davis Bertans on their books as proof. No team is taking those players unless the Mavs attach draft pick compensation. Overpaying gives Dallas one less asset to offer in trades and complicates their future cap sheet as they attempt to improve their roster. The Mavericks need talent and assets, and they must make that a priority in their decision-making this summer.

Overpaying in free agency after losing their first-round pick and Kyrie would be devastating for fans, but it could still get worse.

Dallas Mavericks fail to add a 3-and-D wing this offseason

Trading Dorian Finney-Smith left the Mavs without that defensive stopper on the perimeter. They struggled to rebound and protect the rim during last season’s run to the conference finals, but Doe-Doe and Reggie Bullock played strong perimeter defense to hold the opposition in check. Bullock cannot do it by himself. The Mavericks’ defense could take a significant leap if they find a 3-and-D wing this summer.

Those do not come cheap, though. Every team in the league is looking for those players, which immediately drives the price up. It will likely cost Dallas at least one if not two first-round picks to acquire a 3-and-D wing in the offseason on the trade market.

What if the Mavericks strike out here? They needed one after trading for Kyrie Irving at the deadline, and the front office did not find a deal. The demand is high and the supply is low, which always makes for a bad market when trying to acquire that piece.

The Dallas Mavericks could fail to add a 3-and-D wing on top of all their other struggles, but that is not the final piece of the doomsday scenario. It still gets a bit worse from there.

Dallas Mavericks sign another big man that does not fit

The Mavs signed JaVale McGee to be their starting center last summer, and he lasted seven games in the role. The seven-footer did not just lose his starting gig but was completely out of the rotation for the majority of the season. His three-year $17.2 million contract looks laughable and unmovable, and the first year is not even finished.

With McGee out, head coach Jason Kidd turned back to Dwight Powell as the starting center. Remember, DP was a DNP-CD in three of the team’s first four games after starting throughout their run to the conference finals last season. McGee was signed to be his replacement, but the move just never worked.

The Mavericks will again be looking for an upgrade at the five this summer, but the stakes are likely higher this time around. Powell is an unrestricted free agent this summer, and he could be headed elsewhere leaving Dallas with zero backup plan. The Mavs need this signing to work.

There are no guarantees here. Dallas has signed a handful of players that seemingly fit well next to Luka Doncic only for things not to work out. They need a center, but who fits next to number 77? The Mavs need to figure it out quickly. No Dallas Mavericks doomsday scenario is complete without one final piece, though.

Dallas Mavericks get off to a slow start next season forcing Luka Doncic to request a trade

Luka is the Mavs franchise. The 24-year-old superstar is on pace to be an all-time great player. He continues to set records and become the youngest player to accomplish feats. Doncic could legitimately be in the GOAT conversation if he keeps improving and winning.

Missing the playoffs will not go over well with number 77. He put some pressure on the organization to make the trade for Kyrie Irving and get more talent around him. If the eight-time All-Star bolts and the Mavs cannot find Luka enough help through other avenues, he will not be happy. LD wants to win and now.

If the Mavericks get off to a slow start next season after a disastrous offseason, Doncic could request a trade. Dallas does not have to grant it. Luka cannot become a free agent until 2026, but do the Mavs want an unhappy superstar leading their charge? It could be disastrous for the franchise and further underscores how much is riding on this summer.

The Dallas Mavericks cannot afford to lose Luka Doncic. They need to do whatever it takes to improve their roster around him this offseason. Keeping number 77 happy and healthy should be the top priority for the franchise if they plan on becoming title contenders soon. Dallas certainly cannot afford this doomsday scenario, but will it happen? Stay tuned to find out.