Dallas Mavericks: Will Josh Green go down as a draft bust?

The Dallas Mavericks drafted Josh Green with the 18th overall pick in 2020. It was a bit of a surprise selection, but Green was projected as a first-rounder. The transition to the NBA has not been seamless for the 20-year-old.

Green has only played in 31 of the team’s 62 games thus far. He averages just 2.3 points and 1.9 rebounds in 10.5 minutes per game. Green is shooting 44.8 percent from the field but has only hit three 3-pointers all season. The 20-year-old has failed to earn consistent playing time and sits at just 324 minutes played for the season.

Mavericks fans get frustrated when looking around the league. Saddiq Bey, Immanuel Quickley, Desmond Bane, Tyrese Maxey, and others selected behind Green are having outstanding seasons and look light years ahead of the Mavericks rookie. Will Green go down as a draft bust? What should fans expect going forward?

Will Dallas Mavericks rookie Josh Green go down as a draft bust?

It has been a strange season for all rookies. The draft took place on Nov. 18, and training camp began two weeks later. There was no summer league or time to adjust to the NBA.

Green has been hurt by the short G League season too. He did play six games inside the bubble with the Salt Lake City Stars because the Texas Legends did not take part. He averaged 13.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.3 steals in 29.7 minutes per game. Still, his lack of minutes, even when the Mavs are struggling with injuries has been disappointing.

Will Josh Green go down as a draft bust? Here is a closer look at what we’ve seen so far before determining what supporters should expect going forward from the Dallas Mavericks rookie.

Next: Positives

Positive signs from Dallas Mavericks rookie Josh Green

The rookie is coming off one of his best games of the season against the Detroit Pistons on April 29. He had four points, two rebounds, and two assists in 14 minutes of action. Green won the Defensive Player of the Game belt for the first time as the Mavericks picked up a win without their two star players.

The 20-year-old has thrown down some monster dunks this season. He had one against the Pistons.

His ability to run the floor and finish could give Dallas a different dimension. They are 26th in pace this season as Luka Doncic loves to bring the ball up slowly and work in the half-court. Getting out in transition could create a few additional easy buckets for the Mavericks.

Green is developing his playmaking ability too. There have only been flashes this season, but here he turns the corner and kicks to Maxi Kleber in the corner for a wide-open 3-pointer.

That is all it is for Josh Green right now. There are just glimpses and flashes of immense talent. The 20-year-old has work to do to become a nightly rotation player in the NBA, but the tools are present. Let us take a closer look at what is keeping him from playing more.

Next: Negatives

What has kept Dallas Mavericks rookie Josh Green from earning minutes?

Some fans think Mavs coach Rick Carlisle just refuses to play rookies, but that narrative is untrue. Luka Doncic started all 72 games he played in as a rookie and averaged 32.2 minutes per game. Jalen Brunson played 21.8 minutes a night in his first year and started 38 games. There are other examples too. So after writing that off, why has Green not played more?

The jump shot is just not where it needs to be right now. The 6’5 wing is three of 18 from 3-point range on the season. Green hit just three of 17 in his six games in the G League bubble too. Luka Doncic is going to have the ball in his hands. The Mavericks struggle playing anyone that cannot space the floor or be a roll man for their superstar. Green fits neither role.

The 20-year-old is also on the outside of the regular rotation because he is not contributing to winning. After the Mavericks difficult COVID stretch, they needed every victory to get back in the Western Conference playoff race. They currently sit sixth and are clawing their way to avoiding the play-in tournament. Playing a rookie that is still getting his feet wet in the league could cost Dallas a crucial game in the standings.

Next: Going forward

What should Dallas Mavericks fans expect from Josh Green going forward?

It is way too soon to label Green a bust. He has struggled during his rookie season, but the 20-year-old is far from the first player to do that. Five-time All-Star Jimmy Butler averaged 2.6 points per game in 2012 as a 22-year-old rookie. It is frustrating because players selected after him after performing better, but growth is not linear in the NBA. Some talent takes more time to develop than others.

Green needs to turn the flashes into consistent production. He does not profile as a leading scorer. The 6’5 wing could be a stout defender, secondary creator, and transition nightmare. He needs to put those skills on display every night.

Green must improve his jump shot too. He will struggle to crack Rick Carlisle’s rotation until he is at least a passable shooter. The Mavericks have had success in this area. Both Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber have made massive improvements in their 3-point shooting in recent years. Could Green be next on that list? He will need to get in the gym and make it a priority this offseason.

Josh Green is a talented rookie with immense upside. Expect the Dallas Mavericks to keep developing him. Stay tuned to see how it all shakes out.