Dallas Mavericks Outlook: Over/Under on ESPN Projections?

By Paul Wang

Oct 9, 2017

DALLAS, TX - MARCH 7: Dirk Nowitzki #41 of the Dallas Mavericks high fives with a fan after the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on March 7, 2017 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images) /

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DALLAS, TX – MARCH 21: Nerlens Noel #3 of the Dallas Mavericks dunks the ball against the Golden State Warriors on March 21, 2017 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images) /

6. Nerlens Noel

"FG% FT% 3PM REB AST STL BLK PTS 2016-2017 Statistics .595 .694 0.0 5.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 8.7 ESPN 2018 Projections .538 .639 0.0 6.6 1.5 1.6 1.2 9.5"

In a surprising turn of events, Nerlens returns to Dallas on a $4.1M qualifying offer. Heavily misjudging the market, he now faces an uphill battle to secure the elusive max contract he so clearly covets. To pour salt on the wound, Carlisle has signaled that Noel will begin the season off the bench.

However, Nerlens should still see enough court time to showcase his abilities. And if it means anything, he has been training hard in preparation for the season.

If Nerlens can stay healthy enough to produce Sixer-level steals and blocks (per ESPN projections), he has to grab more than the predicted 6.6 rebounds. In fact, he must secure more boards (and develop a reliable mid-range) to prove that he is a max-worthy player.

Verdict: OVER

Next: Yogi Ferrell