Dallas Mavericks Outlook: Over/Under on ESPN Projections?

By Paul Wang

Oct 9, 2017

DALLAS, TX - MARCH 7: Dirk Nowitzki #41 of the Dallas Mavericks high fives with a fan after the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on March 7, 2017 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images) /

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BROOKLYN, NY – MARCH 19: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Dirk Nowitzki #41 of the Dallas Mavericks in action against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on March 19, 2017 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The Mavs defeated the Nets 111-104. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

3. Dirk Nowitzki

"FG% FT% 3PM REB AST STL BLK PTS 2016-2017 Statistics .437 .875 1.5 6.5 1.5 0.6 0.7 14.2 ESPN 2018 Projections .424 .878 1.3 5.7 1.5 0.6 0.5 13.0"

Last season MFFLs collectively held our breaths when Dirk’s playing career was jeopardized by a nagging achilles injury. Although Nowitzki later recovered to (relatively) good health, he was visibly hampered at times — shooting the lowest percentage from the field since his rookie year. But despite his creaking joints, Dirk will be back donning Mavericks blue for the 20th season in a row.

For the most part, ESPN’s projections for Dirk are reasonable. After all, Nowitzki is 39 and coming off the first season of a sizable drop-off in production.

However, barring a severe recurrence of the achilles injury, it is difficult to envision Dirk shooting just 42.4% from the field. In fact, that figure is borderline disrespectful for someone widely regarded as one of the greatest shooters in NBA history.

I, for one, will be looking forward to hearing sweet nylon as Dirk continues to torch foes with his signature off-legged fadeaway.

Verdict: PUSH (over on FG%)

Next: Wesley Matthews