How the Dallas Mavericks Can Still Be the 5th Seed

The Dallas Mavericks pulled out a huge victory on Wednesday night against the Houston Rockets. Is the 5th seed in the West still out of reach?

After the big win in Dallas last night, the Mavericks find themselves two games ahead of the Rockets and one game ahead of the Utah Jazz. Dallas is locked into the 7th spot in the West for the time being after winning their last five games.

After the all-star break, the aspiring 5th spot in the West was the talk of the Western Conference. Dallas found themselves fighting hand-in-hand with a healthy Chandler Parsons leading the way. Then disaster struck as the Mavs went on a huge slump losing 10 of 12 games and losing Chandler Parsons for the rest of the season.

Now, much talk over the past week has been all about the three-way battle for the last two spots in the West between three teams: Dallas, Utah, and Houston. But could the 5th seed still be obtainable for the Mavericks?

At the time of this publication, here is the records for the two teams above the Mavericks in the Western Conference standings…

5. Memphis Grizzlies 42-36

6. Portland Trail Blazers 43-37

7. Dallas Mavericks 40-38

Believe it or not, Dallas is just two games out of the 5th spot with just four games left in the season. Obviously, for the Mavs to reach the 5th seed, they will need some help from the opponents of the Grizzlies and Blazers.

For Memphis, they couldn’t have made up a worse ending to the season than what they have. With the loss of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies go into these last set of games extremely short-handed. Not only are they short-handed, but their schedule is worse than their health situation. Their last four games is @Dallas, Golden State, @Clippers, and @Golden State.

Now a lot of this hinges on how the Warriors approach the last games of the season in pursuit of the record. If they are still going for the record on the last game of the season, Memphis has a real shot at losing the last four games of the season and finishing 42-40 on the season.

Portland, not Memphis, poses the biggest threat to the 5th seed for the Mavericks as they only have two games left on the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. Now Minnesota did just beat the Warriors in overtime, but Portland has a real shot at winning the last two games of the season and finishing 45-37.

If Portland does win their last two games of the season, this would mean the Mavericks could not reach the 5th seed in the West as the best record the Mavericks could end with would be 44-38.

So how could the Mavs get the 5th seed in the West?

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Dallas would need Memphis to lose at least three, most likely all four, of their last games of the season; something that is very likely. They would then need Portland to lose at least one, probably both, of their last games of the season; something that is not very likely. Finally, the Mavericks would have to win at least three, if not all four, of their last four games of the season (Grizzlies, Clippers, Jazz, Spurs); something that is very possible considering the possibility of resting of players.

So is the 5th seed possible for the Mavericks still? Absolutely. Is it likely they will reach it? Most likely not.

My prediction is that Portland and Memphis will switch spots in the standings. I think Portland will win their last two games of the season and finish with a 45-37 record. I believe Memphis will go 2-2 over their last four games of the season and finish with a 44-38 record. Finally, I think Dallas will hold off Utah and Houston to finish with a 43-39 record in the 7th spot in the West.