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Mavericks Over/Under: 105.2 Points per Game

By Jay Knodell

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Will the Mavericks score more in 2015-16 than the 105.2 ppg they produced last season?

As we continue our Over/Under series leading up until the season, we turn our attention to the 105.2 points per game the Mavericks scored in 2014-15.

The figure was good enough for third in the league behind the Golden State Warriors (110.0) and Los Angeles Clippers (106.7) despite the detrimental effects that Rajon Rondo had on the offense for 46 games.

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The team’s leading scorer from last season suits up for the Indiana Pacers now, and Dirk Nowitzki is one year closer to retirement, but the Mavericks have added an array of shooters and upgraded at the point guard position.

Will they eclipse the 105.2 points per game from last season? Or will the loss of Monta Ellis be too much to overcome?

We debate the issue below.

Feb 2, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward

Chandler Parsons

(25) celebrates with forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) during the second half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at the American Airlines Center. The Mavericks won 100-94. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

CASE FOR OVER

Jay Knodell:

Losing Monta and entering training camp with uncertainty surrounding the two best wing players on the team makes this a tricky one, but I envision this Mavericks squad being really tough to stop so I’ll take the over.

I envision this Mavericks squad being really tough to stop

If you look at the two teams that finished ahead of the Mavericks in point production last season one thing really stands out: three-point shooting.

The Warriors and Clippers trailed only the Rockets (103.9 ppg) in made three-point field goals last season, and while the Mavericks checked in at a respectable seventh place there is certainly room for improvement. The type of improvement that would help them get back to the unstoppable force that was the offense pre-Rondo.

And this year’s roster is chock full of the shooters necessary to be one of the league’s most dangerous teams from outside. Think about this: Rajon Rondo and Monta Ellis combined for 100 made three-pointers for the Mavericks in 126 games. Wesley Matthews hit 173 in 60 games. 

Deron Williams hit 87 last season. Rondo, the guy he’s replacing, has hit 128 in his 10-year career. Yeah, you read that right.

Then there are the usual suspects: Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons, Devin Harris, Charlie Villanueva…

And with the attention JaVale McGee will get when he’s rolling to the rim a la Tyson Chandler/Brandan Wright, and the passing ability of Zaza Pachulia, the Mavericks should be able to get their shooters some really good looks night in and night out.

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The Mavericks were able to remain one of the league’s best offenses even with as pedestrian a shooting backcourt as there is in the game. Impressive considering what they wanted to accomplish depended a lot on the spacing of the court.

Losing Monta hurts, but Parsons will essentially slide right into his role as primary playmaker, and I think the copious amount of shooting on the roster makes up for some of the deficiencies of the second unit.

So yes, the Mavericks will indeed average more than the 105.2 they did last season. The problem will be that every team they play will look like an offensive juggernaut, too.

CASE FOR UNDER

Kohl Rast:

Everyone who watched the Dallas Mavericks last year before the Rondo trade saw just how potent the Mavericks offense was capable of being. It definitely helped that the top scorers to that squad were returning from the previous year, but in reality, the team clicked well right from the start.

Amazingly, even with Rondo coming in and mucking the offense up a bit, as well as losing the scoring abilities of Brandan Wright and Jameer Nelson, we still managed to score at a rate of 105.2 points per game which had us ranked third in the league.

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This year’s team has a lot of good options to further our scoring even more than the last, but if I were a betting man, I would predict the Mavericks average points per game to go down this year.

With all the new additions to the roster, it is obvious that the Mavericks are going to need to establish a new number one guy on the roster. Most people, (myself included), are expecting that responsibility to fall into Chandler Parsons’ lap.

Can we count on him to not only be healthy for the entire season but also to be effective as the number one guy? Along with that, can we count on our mostly new and very young bench to score points while the starters are out of the game? My belief is that this team will take more time than last year’s to learn to co-exist and excel together.

This team will take more time than last year’s to learn to co-exist and excel together.

My other issue with the scoring potential of the Mavericks team is that they were 3rd in the league behind only the Warriors and Clippers last year. As far as I can tell, those may be the two most unified teams in the league as far as consistency and cohesion on the court.

The Warriors had all 5 of their starters from last year on the roster since 2012, while the Clippers did since 2013. Of course there are unique situations where a new team can fit together and have immediate progress, but the fact still stands that teams generally need time to gel before the offense can start to produce at a high level.

I believe the Mavericks have a great shot at having a solid team this year, but their offensive production will take a hit in my opinion.

What do you think?

Next: Over/Under: Will Parsons Up His Assists Totals?

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