After reading and watching all the so-called experts dissect this series from every possible angle, I have come to the belief that the Mavericks will win this series for the following reasons.
Reason #1 – Dirk Nowitzki. The Heat will not be able to stop him. Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem are going to have the task of trying, the result most likely being that Bosh will be a non-factor because of foul trouble. For that reason, I doubt LeBron James will be covering Nowitzki often because they do not have the depth if James has to sit for extended minutes.
Reason #2 – Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood. The Heat have no answer for the big men. Bosh is going to have his hands full with Nowitzki. Who is going to stop Chandler? Joel Anthony? Erik Dampier? Ilgauskas? Not likely. The Mavs should be able to outrebound and outscore the Heat in the trenches. Chandler and Haywood are going to have to be a force on defense too, and forcing James and Wade to settle for jumpers.
Reason #3 – The Bench. The Mavs have the best bench in the NBA. They can change the tempo of the game by bringing in J.J. Barea to run the point. If they converge on Barea, Jason Terry and Peja Stoyakovic will kill them from outside. If the starters have to play a lot of minutes for the Heat, they are going to have to expend a lot of energy on defense. By the end of the game, the Heat will be playing with less energy and will not execute as well. Mike Miller and Mario Chalmers will have to play out of their minds to give the Heat enough points off the bench to keep it close.
Reason #4 – Jason Kidd. The Mavs have the advantage at point guard. Jason Kidd is still great at distributing the basketball and getting it to the open man. Plus he can still hurt you from downtown if you leave him open. I don’t see Bibby slowing him down, if anything I think Bibby means Kidd will have an awesome series. J.J. Barea will provide different problems as I don’t see anyone being able to stop him from driving to the hoop.
Reason #5 - The Mavs are the better team. The Heat, while more talented, still have not completely jelled as team. They have holes in the paint and at the point. The Mavs are playing like a well-oiled machine. They know each others tendencies. They have no glaring weaknesses. They are tough. They will not panic. They know how to come back. They know how to hold on.
The Mavs will win this series in 7 games. They will win split the first two games in Miami. They will win 2 of 3 at home. And they will win Game 7 to clinch the title before the NBA plunges itself into the lockout abyss that will most likely shorten the season if not completely cancel it. So enjoy what should be an epic series. It may be the last basketball we see for quite some time. Go Mavs!